In Afghanistan the Pashtuns are the single largest ethnic
group. It is this group that makes up the majority of Taliban fighters and
supporters. It should be clear that the foreign supported government in Kabul
does very little governing and could not survive long on its own. To a greater
or lesser extent, the Taliban have won the Afghan war.
Regardless of the outcome of the war being a negotiated
political settlement or outright military victory, the Taliban are going to be
a significant political force in any post conflict Afghanistan. With this
inevitability in mind, the widespread reporting for close to a decade that
every major regional country is supporting a Taliban faction makes perfect
sense. This includes countries like China and Iran who are not supporters of
Sunni fundamentalism generally speaking. It is also important to note that what
is amorphously called the Taliban is closer to the myriad of rebel factions in
Syria than a unified command and control structure.
Various countries support Taliban factions to make political
inroads, so they can have influence and pursue their long-term regional
interests relating to Afghanistan. This type of engagement works best by
building trust and demonstrating each countries' value to the respective
Taliban faction they support. It has been reported that Russia and other
countries have provided night vision goggles in the past, an example of an item
with high value. The goal is to attempt to create a long-term relationship that
will endure the end of the conflict.
The dynamic of many countries competing for lasting
political influence in Afghanistan undermines the logic of the headline
allegation against Russia. Vladimir Putin is regarded as being a skilled
political and geopolitical strategist. It would be newsworthy indeed if Russia
under his leadership has abandoned their decade long strategy of building
influence in Afghanistan, and has instead adopted a pay per kill
transactional relationship with Taliban factions. This allegation is based on
the assertion of anonymous Western intelligence sources, with no evidence
presented in 'reporting' on the matter. I will continue to give greater credibility to
reasoned, fact based analysis than fact free allegations regardless of the
source.
