Egypt and UAE Exacerbate Conflict in Sudan and the Horn of Africa

    The growing rivalry between one time allies, Egypt and the UAE, is manifesting in the merger of the war in Sudan with the conflicts in the Horn of Africa.  The efforts of the UAE to increase their influence in Africa have born fruit in recent years, becoming the main patron of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Paramilitary in Sudan, and the Prosperity Party (PP) government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia.  Egypt was naturally aligned with the UAE in combating political Islam diplomatically and militarily.  Egypt is at odds with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, over fears it will limit vital water and fertilizing sediments.  As a result Egypt is no longer able to manage relations with Ethiopian patron the UAE.  Already backing opposite sides in the Sudanese war, Ethiopia became another stark divide between Egypt and the UAE, over what both view as vital national interests.  Egypt is determined to achieve security in Sudan by backing the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and perceives a mortal threat from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  The UAE is more inclined than ever to support their lucrative client the RSF in Sudan, because of the financial strain of Persian Gulf war.  Likewise the UAE continues to regard as a top priority propping up Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister of an Ethiopian Government increasingly becoming a desperate, captured proxy.  Using their leverage the UAE has turned Ethiopian soil into a staging ground for the RSF and allies to launch attacks into Sudan.  The SAF has responded by deepening their relationship with the TPLF and other armed Ethiopian opposition groups, whose troops are permitted on Sudanese soil.  The TPLF have already directly engaged in combat with the RSF in Sudan.  Unverified reports suggest the possibility the SAF may come to see toppling the Ethiopian Government as the path to victory in Sudan.  Egypt deploying troops to Saudi Arabia in support of their war on Yemen may heighten the tension putting them on a collision course with the UAE.

The TPLF TLDR - Ethiopia Eritrea

    The long feud between Eritrea and Ethiopia stems from the territorial ambitions of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). The Tigray regional state of Ethiopia borders Eritrea. The TPLF, governing Ethiopia since 1991, claimed and occupied territory awarded to Eritrea by an international boundary commission. In 2018 Mass protests, primarily in the Oromia region, lead to the TPLF being ousted from governing Ethiopia by their previously subordinate coalition 'partners'. The TPLF remained popular and in power in their home region state of Tigray. The much vaunted peace agreement between the new Prosperity Party (PP) government of Ethiopia and Eritrea, even awarded the Nobel Peace Prize by the morons running the committee, was in reality an alliance of convenience. Interests converged with Eritrea seizing an opportunity to vanquish an old foe once and for all, and The Prosperity Party (PP) government seeking to crush with military force the only opposition governed regional state. Together they launched a war against the TPLF and the regional state of Tigray in 2020. Fighting with exceptional adeptness, the TPLF were able to force the Prosperity Party (PP) government of Ethiopia to negotiate terms in the Pretoria Agreement 2022. Eritrea, dismayed that the Prosperity Party (PP) government of Ethiopia did not persevere to totally destroy the TPLF, ruptured relations with Ethiopia. Further inflamed by revanchist claims about access to the sea by Ethiopia, Eritrea has formed an alliance with the TPLF, and other ethnic based insurgent factions in the Amhara and Oromia regions. Eritrea is primarily seeking to shield itself from direct combat with Ethiopia. Eritrea might be so bold as to use this alliance to topple the Prosperity Party (PP) government of Ethiopia, but the TPLF is engaged in a dual track strategy including attempting to negotiate a place for itself in the existing ruling hierarchy of Ethiopia.