Egypt and UAE Exacerbate Conflict in Sudan and the Horn of Africa

    The growing rivalry between one time allies, Egypt and the UAE, is manifesting in the merger of the war in Sudan with the conflicts in the Horn of Africa.  The efforts of the UAE to increase their influence in Africa have born fruit in recent years, becoming the main patron of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Paramilitary in Sudan, and the Prosperity Party (PP) government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia.  Egypt was naturally aligned with the UAE in combating political Islam diplomatically and militarily.  Egypt is at odds with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, over fears it will limit vital water and fertilizing sediments.  As a result Egypt is no longer able to manage relations with Ethiopian patron the UAE.  Already backing opposite sides in the Sudanese war, Ethiopia became another stark divide between Egypt and the UAE, over what both view as vital national interests.  Egypt is determined to achieve security in Sudan by backing the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and perceives a mortal threat from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  The UAE is more inclined than ever to support their lucrative client the RSF in Sudan, because of the financial strain of Persian Gulf war.  Likewise the UAE continues to regard as a top priority propping up Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister of an Ethiopian Government increasingly becoming a desperate, captured proxy.  Using their leverage the UAE has turned Ethiopian soil into a staging ground for the RSF and allies to launch attacks into Sudan.  The SAF has responded by deepening their relationship with the TPLF and other armed Ethiopian opposition groups, whose troops are permitted on Sudanese soil.  The TPLF have already directly engaged in combat with the RSF in Sudan.  Unverified reports suggest the possibility the SAF may come to see toppling the Ethiopian Government as the path to victory in Sudan.  Egypt deploying troops to Saudi Arabia in support of their war on Yemen may heighten the tension putting them on a collision course with the UAE.